← Game Kastle Santa Clara Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Game Kastle Santa Clara Store Championship
decks
2
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-4-1
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1464
· median 1464
· range 1280–1648
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1192
Q1 1320
Q3 1494
1678
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -5.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
